The viscosity of the modeled lava dome (∼10 12 Pa s) is in a good agreement with the effective viscosity estimated experimentally from lavas of Volcán de Colima. It is shown that the topography of the crater at Volcán de Colima is likely to be inclined toward the west. The maximum height of the modeled lava dome and its horizontal extent are in a good agreement with observations in the case of the empirically-derived extrusion rates. These rates are determined either empirically by optimizing the fit between the morphological shape of modeled domes and that of the observed dome or from the recorded lava dome volumes. Several model scenarios of lava dome growth are then considered depending on the crater geometry, the conduit location, the effective viscosity of dome carapace, and the extrusion rates. Initially, we analyze how this viscosity, CCGT, and the rate of lava extrusion influence the morphology of the growing dome. Our viscosity model incorporates crystal growth kinetics and depends on the characteristic time of crystal content growth (or CCGT) and the crystal-free magma viscosity. Camera images of the lava dome growth together with recorded volumes of the erupted lava have been used to constrain numerical modeling and hence to match the history of the dome growth by nudging model forecasts to observations. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the magma viscosity and discharge rates on the lava dome morphology at Volcán de Colima in Mexico during a long dome-building episode lasting from early 2007 to fall 2009 without explosive dome destruction. Magma extrusion, lava dome growth, collapse of domes, and associated pyroclastic flow hazards are among important volcanological studies. 5Centro Universitario de Estudios Vulcanológicos, Universidad de Colima, Colima, Mexico.Krasovskii Institute of Mathematics and Mechanics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg, Russia
3Lomonosov Moscow State University, Institute of Mechanics, Moscow, Russia.2Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.1Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Applied Geosciences, Karlsruhe, Germany.Natalya Zeinalova 1,2, Alik Ismail-Zadeh 1,2*, Oleg Melnik 3, Igor Tsepelev 4 and Vyacheslav Zobin 5
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